Music Events and Tourism in the City of Stradivari: A Causal Analysis of Guest Volume and Spending Patterns in Cremona

Cultural events are actively promoted as tools for destination marketing, yet knowledge regarding their causal impact on both visitor demand and territorial spending remains limited. This thesis investigates the causal impact of music events on tourism in Cremona, Italy ("City of Stradivari"), integrating day-level hospitality data from HBenchmark with territorial credit card expenditure data provided by Mastercard. We estimate the impact of music events on three primary outcomes: guest volume, total aggregated spending, and the compositional share of high-spending guests. The analysis initially employs Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) panel regressions, and Generalized Linear Models (GLM), alongside an Event-Study design assessed via placebo tests. Propensity Score Matching (PSM) is ultimately deployed to mitigate selection bias on observable characteristics and strengthen the causal interpretation of the estimates. The findings reveal that music events have a significant positive impact on both guest volume (driven predominantly by international visitors) and total local revenue, with the latter increasing by approximately 21% compared to non-event twin days. However, this massive volume expansion results in a statistically significant decrease in the proportional share of high-spending guests. In conclusion, the study highlights that while music events successfully act as drivers of aggregate consumption, they structurally crowd out premium tourist segments.