Export risk assessment in the Veneto manufacturing sector - A network-gravity machine learning approach

The dynamics of international trade are increasingly defined by extreme firm-level heterogeneity. While classical macroeconomic models treat exporting nations as homogeneous entities, modern empirical literature highlights that a fractional minority of "superstar exporters" drives the vast majority of trade value and premium pricing. The purpose of this research is to investigate the structural determinants of the export monetary value and the pricing power -measured via export unit values- within the Veneto manufacturing ecosystem. By integrating the Gravity Model of international trade (testing the Alchian-Allen spatial quality sorting conjecture) with firm-level network topology and institutional risk analysis, this study aims to isolate the exact drivers of high-value-added exports.