Sustainability Prediction of National Fund of Kazakhstan

In the last years Republic of Kazakhstan has relied on its National Fund to cover budget deficits at the end of the fiscal year. This thesis considers machine learning techniques to forecast the sustainability of the national fund and evaluate the long-term economic consequences of such trends of national fund. Analysing historical data on government GDP, inflation, oil prices, and fund withdrawals, this study has a goal to build predictive model that assess the fund sustainability by 2030. Machine learning algorithms are used with economics to provide insights on the future of national fund of Kazakhstan. The research will also explore potential for fiscal crises, such as prolonged low oil prices, currency devaluation of tenge, or increasing public debt.