From the one to the two-child policy: the policy-making process of China’s family planning reform

Since the Open Letter of 1980, identified as the starting point of China’s strict population control, the so-called “one-child policy” was characterized by variations and exceptions and, over the years, went through a long and gradual process of change. The four administrations from Deng Xiaoping till Xi Jinping carried on family planning with different approaches but in the spirit of continuity, without ever questioning its status of basic-state policy. In 2015, after 35 years of one-childization, a reform that allowed every couple to have two children was approved, marking a major change in the State’s ideology towards population. The policy-making process that led to this decision has been punctuated by a lengthy debate among scholars and birth planning officials on the feasibility of a national openness to two children. Given the increased pluralization of the arena of debate, the process was analyzed using the theoretical framework of Fragmented Authoritarianism. I first described the bureaucratic structure of family planning apparatus, thereafter, defined the political entrepreneurs that shaped the process of change and, finally, compared the issue framing they used to make their thesis prevail in relation with the official narrative. The universal two-child policy was certainly influenced by the demographers’ work and the current situation of very low fertility, despite policy relaxation, confirmed the correctness of their thesis.