From Enclave to Corridor Cross-Border Mobility, Institutions and Regional Spillovers in Horgos–Ili under the Belt and Road Initiative

本文以“一带一路”倡议下的霍尔果斯—伊犁走廊为案例，考察霍尔果斯口岸的跨境流动是否转化为伊犁腹地的经济活动，以及收益最终留在何处。研究将“一带一路”理解为具有空间指向性的产业政策工具，以2013年和2023年为两个时间节点，逐一比较物流与过境运输、企业注册、就业、跨境零售旅游与电商、产业关联五个渠道的变化，并通过份额分析区分“边境集聚”与“向内陆扩散”。研究发现：口岸吞吐量增长了两个数量级以上，但留在边境的附加值有限；企业注册热潮主要由早于倡议的财税政策驱动；与内陆的产业关联薄弱。霍尔果斯以约2.5%的人口创造了约11%的地区生产总值，但其占比自2019年以来并未上升。研究表明，霍尔果斯更像走廊中的枢纽节点，而非增长极；区域一体化更多取决于跨层级协调与本地吸收能力，而非仅靠基础设施建设。

This thesis examines whether cross-border mobility at Horgos, on the China–Kazakhstan border, translates into economic activity in the Ili hinterland, and where the resulting gains are retained. Treating the Belt and Road Initiative as a set of spatially targeted industrial-policy instruments, it studies the Horgos–Ili corridor as an embedded single case, comparing outcomes before and after two thresholds, 2013 and 2023, and using share analysis to distinguish concentration at the border from diffusion inland. Five channels are examined: logistics and transit, firm registration, employment, cross-border retail, tourism and e-commerce, and productive linkage. Throughput grew by more than two orders of magnitude, yet the value retained at the border is narrow; registrations were driven largely by a fiscal regime that predates the Initiative; and productive linkages with the interior are weak. Horgos accounts for about 11 percent of regional output with 2.5 percent of the population, but its share has not risen since 2019. Inland growth has been driven mainly by resource-based industry, while border trade handles goods produced elsewhere. The evidence suggests that Horgos functions as a hub in a corridor rather than as a growth pole, and that regional integration depends on coordination and absorptive capacity more than on infrastructure alone.