“No Other Family”: Changing geopolitics of Central Asia after the Russia-Ukraine war through the lens of the Organization of Turkic States.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) has transformed from the periphery of Eurasia’s regionalist dynamics to the center of Central Asia’s alignment processes. This thesis will explore how the OTS’ prominence has developed as a consequence of that war. It will also contend that the transformation has been qualitative, not developmental. In other words, the OTS has transitioned from an arena for symbolic, identity-based discussions to a highly flexible arena for states to hedge their interests, while simultaneously avoiding supranational integration. Drawing primarily on New Regionalism (Hettne & Söderbaum) and Arena-Hedging (Nasibov & Gawrich), the study examines whether a shared sense of “we-feeling” (Wendt) functions as an identity mechanism within the OTS and how this relates to state behavior. Systematic Qualitative Content Analysis was applied to the eight Summit Declarations of the OTS (2009 – 2025). The data were analyzed based upon keyword frequency, commitment intensity and whether identity or interest language was utilized most frequently. Additionally, two case studies were conducted which examined Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan as members of the OTS. These case studies tested the findings obtained through the Summit Declaration content analysis against state behavior. The analysis demonstrated a significant increase in functional commitments from the OTS in conjunction with a relatively flat, shallow Identity Register, after 2022. Moreover, the empirical evidence demonstrates that hedging vocabulary is being articulated as sovereignty, connectivity and corridors; a finding that is further substantiated by the divergence in response exhibited by the OTS towards both Ukraine and Gaza. Finally, the case study evidence confirmed that although the OTS is hierarchical in financing and dominated by Turkey, it is pluralistic in operation. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have successfully shaped the agenda of the OTS and limited its ambitions.