The Mediterranean pivot: realigning Italian export strategies toward the GCC’s new economic order

The structural shift from linear globalization to a polycentric trade order has forced mid-sized export economies to reconsider their market strategies. This thesis examines Italy’s capacity to reorient its export model toward the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), in response to the saturation of mature markets – USA, Russia and Europe – the restructuring of global value chains and the transition from “just-in-time” to “just-in-case” supply logic. Through a quantitative analysis of Italian - Arab trade flows (2018-2024) and qualitative case studies such as Danieli, Permasteelisa and Arper, the research assesses the opportunities created by the GCC’s post-oil diversification agendas, run by Saudi Vision 2030 and the UAE’s Projects of the 50, alongside formal and informal barriers Italian enterprises must navigate. The theoretical foundation for evaluating entry strategies in these different and complex economies is provided by the Uppsala and Born Global models. The final section of this work further analyses the recent geopolitical disruptions of 2025-2026, including the US-Iran vs. Iran conflict and renewed U.S. trade protectionism, that act as stress tests for GCC stability and Italian strategic planning. The thesis concludes that a successful Mediterranean pivot requires Italy to evolve from transactional supplier to long-term industrial partner, capitalising on its excellence in engineering, design and agri-food within the framework of the GCC’s emerging economic order.