Responses of Thai Foreign Policy Elites to Shifts in Global Power Dynamics: The Rise of China and the Evolving Role of the West

As global power shifts, the influence of the United States has gradually diminished while China’s rising economic power increasingly challenges Western dominance, contributing to an era of multipolarity. Thailand, often described as an “awkward middle power” (Freedman, 2022), faces the challenge of balancing its longstanding security ties with the United States and expanding economic opportunities with China. Thai foreign policy is shaped by multiple actors, including the government, military, monarchy, political parties, ASEAN, and external powers. Historically aligned with the United States, Thailand has pursued a more balanced approach, strengthening ties with both the United States and China while emphasizing regional cooperation and economic diplomacy. In response to domestic instability and changing global power structures, Thailand has adopted "bamboo diplomacy" (Kumar and Kurian, 2024), a flexible strategy that allows the country to protect its national interests. This study examines how Thai foreign policy elites respond to shifts in global power dynamics, particularly the rise of China and the evolving role of the West. Drawing on constructivist theory, it analyzes how ideas, identities, norms, and perceptions influence Thailand’s foreign policy, while incorporating neorealist insights to explore how elites prioritize state security and strategic survival. Employing qualitative methods, including the analysis of diplomatic and trade data, case studies, interview, and document analysis, the research investigates how Thailand's foreign policy elites strategically adapt and differentiate policy responses in order to preserve autonomy and flexibility amid intensifying great-power rivalry.