Climate Risk and Fertilizer Use in Crop Productivity: Evidence from Four Major Crops in The Gambia.

This paper explores how climate risks and fertilizer use affect farming output in The Gambia, looking at groundnut, maize, millet, or rice. Data from 1980 up to 2020 - pulled from FAOSTAT alongside the World Bank’s climate database - is used to track patterns across time. Instead of simple averages, statistical methods like pooled OLS, fixed effects, or random effects regressions help measure impacts linked to shifting temperatures, irregular rain, plus nutrient inputs on harvest levels. The findings show higher temperatures reduce crop output steadily, standing out as the main weather-linked barrier. While rain changes matter less, their influence differs - hinting at some adjustment to shifting water availability. Using fertilizer helps boost yields, yet results depend on how models are set up, pointing to uneven access or system flaws. Looking closer by crop type, groundnut and millet suffer more under climate pressure than maize or rice. Beyond just output, this research looks at how farming connects to food access and economic development; it shows better harvests improve both supply and exports - but also raise vulnerability to weather shifts. Results highlight that tailored crop adaptations plus smart support policies can strengthen resilience, helping The Gambia maintain stable yields and nutrition despite a shifting climate.