Export Determinants of SMEs: A Robust Variable Selection Analysis with Evidence from France and the United Kingdom

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are a key part of the European economy, yet their participation in international markets is highly uneven. While many studies examine export behaviour, most focus on export intensity and average effects, paying less attention to the actual level of export revenues and to their stability across firms.This thesis analyses the main firm-level factors associated with SMEs’ export revenues in France and the United Kingdom. Using accounting data from the Orbis database, the study compares two advanced economies with similar levels of development but different financial structures. The empirical strategy combines variable selection techniques with flexible regression models, including Generalised Additive Models (GAM), to capture possible non-linear relationships between firm characteristics and export performance. The analysis considers both export levels and their variability.The results show that export performance is shaped by three interconnected dimensions: firm size, efficiency, and financial conditions. Larger firms export more, but firms of similar size can achieve very different results. Efficiency in the use of resources and short-term financial conditions also play a key role. Overall, the findings provide a more complete view of SME internationalisation.