The Strategic Impact of Tariffs on the Automotive Industry

This thesis investigates the potential impact of tariffs and trade duties on the automotive sector, with particular attention to how protectionist measures may influence the strategic and organizational decisions of major car manufacturers in the near future. To provide a broader and more structured analytical framework, the study adopts a comparative and inferential approach, beginning with the analysis of a historically exposed industry: the steel sector. The first part of the thesis examines the evolution of tariffs and trade duties in the steel industry, highlighting the economic, organizational, and strategic responses adopted by key players to cope with trade restrictions. Particular attention is given to the U.S. tariff measures introduced in 2018, which imposed duties of up to 25% on steel imports, significantly affecting global supply chains and fostering consolidation, reshoring, and localization strategies. Drawing on insights derived from this historical experience, the analysis then shifts to the automotive sector. The second part of the thesis explores the structure of the automotive industry as a complex global value chain, examining its exposure to international trade policies and tariff regimes. Automotive tariffs vary significantly across regions and trade agreements: for instance, the European Union applies a 10% tariff on imported passenger cars, while the United States imposes a 2.5% tariff on passenger vehicles and up to 25% on light trucks. China, after reducing automotive tariffs from 25% to 15% in 2018, continues to rely on non-tariff barriers and retaliatory measures that shape global competitive dynamics. Building on this framework, the final part of the thesis analyses how automotive manufacturers may adapt to current and future tariff scenarios, particularly those involving major trading blocs such as the European Union, the United States, and China. By interpreting the steel industry’s experience as an analytical benchmark, the study discusses potential strategic responses in terms of supply chain restructuring, production localization, pricing strategies, and strategic alliances. The thesis concludes by outlining possible future scenarios and strategic implications for the automotive sector, offering insights into how firms can enhance resilience and maintain competitiveness in an increasingly fragmented and geopolitically sensitive global trade environment.