This research analyzes the impact of the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) on international transport and global value chains, with particular attention to its economic and operational implications for companies. Established in 2005 as the world’s first carbon market, the EU ETS is the cornerstone of the EU’s climate policy and the main tool to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, in line with the Green Deal and the “Fit for 55” package. The study examines the functioning of the “cap and trade” system, which sets an overall emissions ceiling and allocates or auctions tradable allowances. Its phased development (2005–2007; 2008–2012; 2013–2020; 2021–2030) progressively expanded sectoral and geographical coverage, introduced stabilization mechanisms such as the Market Stability Reserve, and strengthened its economic effectiveness. Since 2024, maritime transport has been included in the ETS, while from 2027 ETS2 will extend coverage to road transport, buildings, and small industries. In parallel, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) was introduced to mitigate carbon leakage by imposing a carbon price on imported goods. The analysis shows how rising CO₂ costs have reshaped business strategies. Compliance costs are mainly linked to the purchase of EU Allowances (EUAs), which rose from negligible values to over €100/tCO₂ in 2023, later stabilizing between €70–90/tCO₂ in 2024–2025. For shipping, this means multimillion-euro costs per vessel and a direct impact on EBITDA margins. The focus on maritime transport highlights how inclusion in the ETS has accelerated “sustainable shipping” practices: alternative fuels (LNG, green methanol, hydrogen, ammonia), wind and solar assistance, battery-electric propulsion for short routes, and emission-reduction technologies such as scrubbers. Ports are adapting with cleaner infrastructure, such as shore-side electricity. These changes affect the entire global value chain, as higher transport costs cascade to producers and consumers, influencing competitiveness and logistics. From a financial perspective, the study quantifies the impact of carbon pricing on the cost per ton-kilometer, expected to rise further by 2026, and assesses the return on sustainable investments. LNG retrofits have already shown short payback periods, while hydrogen and ammonia require further technological development. Despite high upfront costs, such investments are crucial to reducing exposure to carbon prices and improving reputation and access to ESG capital. The historical analysis of EU emissions (1990–2024) confirms the system’s effectiveness: –31% compared to 1990 levels by 2022, with strong reductions in energy and industry, while transport remains the critical sector. The case of A.P. Moller-Maersk demonstrates how ecological transition has become a strategic factor: monitoring emissions, integrating carbon costs into business models, and transparently communicating sustainability efforts to clients and investors are now essential for financial resilience and competitiveness. In conclusion, the EU ETS acts as a global laboratory for decarbonization, with effects extending beyond Europe and shaping trade and industry worldwide. While it poses challenges, it also generates opportunities for innovation, efficiency, and differentiation. The inclusion of international transport marks a decisive step in aligning value chains with climate goals, proving that sustainability has become a central strategic variable in global commerce.
La ricerca analizza l’impatto del sistema europeo di scambio delle emissioni (EU Emission Trading System – EU ETS) sui trasporti internazionali e sulle catene globali del valore, con particolare attenzione agli effetti economici e operativi per le imprese. Nato nel 2005 come primo mercato del carbonio al mondo, l’EU ETS è il pilastro della politica climatica dell’UE e lo strumento centrale per raggiungere la neutralità climatica entro il 2050, in linea con il Green Deal e il pacchetto “Fit for 55”. Lo studio esamina il funzionamento del sistema “cap and trade”, che prevede un tetto massimo alle emissioni e la distribuzione o l’asta di quote negoziabili. L’evoluzione per fasi (2005-2007; 2008-2012; 2013-2020; 2021-2030) ha ampliato progressivamente la copertura settoriale e geografica, introdotto meccanismi di stabilizzazione come il Market Stability Reserve e rafforzato l’efficacia economica del sistema. Dal 2024 l’ETS include il trasporto marittimo, mentre dal 2027 ETS2 estenderà la regolazione a trasporto su strada, edifici e piccole industrie. A sostegno, il Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) contrasta il rischio di delocalizzazione delle emissioni imponendo un prezzo anche sui beni importati. L’analisi mostra come l’aumento del prezzo della CO₂ abbia trasformato le strategie aziendali Per settori come il trasporto marittimo ciò comporta oneri di decine di milioni di euro per singola nave e impatti diretti sui margini EBITDA. Il focus sul trasporto marittimo evidenzia come l’inclusione nell’ETS abbia accelerato pratiche di “sustainable shipping”: sviluppo di carburanti alternativi (LNG, metanolo verde, idrogeno, ammoniaca), sistemi eolici e solari di supporto, propulsione elettrica per tratte brevi, e soluzioni di riduzione delle emissioni come gli scrubbers. Anche i porti si stanno adattando con infrastrutture a basse emissioni, come l’alimentazione elettrica da terra. Dal punto di vista finanziario, lo studio quantifica l’impatto del prezzo del carbonio sul costo per km/tonnellata trasportata, destinato a crescere entro il 2026, e valuta il ritorno degli investimenti sostenibili. Nonostante gli alti costi iniziali, tali investimenti emergono come strumenti fondamentali per ridurre l’esposizione al prezzo della CO₂ e migliorare reputazione e accesso a capitali ESG. L’analisi storica delle emissioni europee (1990-2024) conferma l’efficacia del sistema: -31% rispetto al 1990 entro il 2022, con forti riduzioni nei settori energetici e industriali, mentre i trasporti restano l’area più critica. Il caso A.P. Moller-Maersk mostra come la transizione ecologica sia ormai un fattore strategico: monitorare le emissioni, integrare i costi del carbonio nei modelli di business e comunicare in modo trasparente gli sforzi ambientali a clienti e investitori diventa essenziale per resilienza economica e competitività. In conclusione, l’EU ETS rappresenta un laboratorio globale per la decarbonizzazione, i cui effetti vanno oltre i confini europei, influenzando commercio e industria a livello internazionale. Pur imponendo sfide, offre anche opportunità di innovazione, efficienza e differenziazione. L’inclusione dei trasporti internazionali segna un passaggio decisivo per allineare le catene del valore agli obiettivi climatici, dimostrando come la sostenibilità sia divenuta una variabile strategica centrale del commercio globale.
L'impatto del sistema di scambio di emissioni europeo sul trasporto internazionale e la global value chain
SORGATO, FEDERICO
2024/2025
Abstract
This research analyzes the impact of the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) on international transport and global value chains, with particular attention to its economic and operational implications for companies. Established in 2005 as the world’s first carbon market, the EU ETS is the cornerstone of the EU’s climate policy and the main tool to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, in line with the Green Deal and the “Fit for 55” package. The study examines the functioning of the “cap and trade” system, which sets an overall emissions ceiling and allocates or auctions tradable allowances. Its phased development (2005–2007; 2008–2012; 2013–2020; 2021–2030) progressively expanded sectoral and geographical coverage, introduced stabilization mechanisms such as the Market Stability Reserve, and strengthened its economic effectiveness. Since 2024, maritime transport has been included in the ETS, while from 2027 ETS2 will extend coverage to road transport, buildings, and small industries. In parallel, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) was introduced to mitigate carbon leakage by imposing a carbon price on imported goods. The analysis shows how rising CO₂ costs have reshaped business strategies. Compliance costs are mainly linked to the purchase of EU Allowances (EUAs), which rose from negligible values to over €100/tCO₂ in 2023, later stabilizing between €70–90/tCO₂ in 2024–2025. For shipping, this means multimillion-euro costs per vessel and a direct impact on EBITDA margins. The focus on maritime transport highlights how inclusion in the ETS has accelerated “sustainable shipping” practices: alternative fuels (LNG, green methanol, hydrogen, ammonia), wind and solar assistance, battery-electric propulsion for short routes, and emission-reduction technologies such as scrubbers. Ports are adapting with cleaner infrastructure, such as shore-side electricity. These changes affect the entire global value chain, as higher transport costs cascade to producers and consumers, influencing competitiveness and logistics. From a financial perspective, the study quantifies the impact of carbon pricing on the cost per ton-kilometer, expected to rise further by 2026, and assesses the return on sustainable investments. LNG retrofits have already shown short payback periods, while hydrogen and ammonia require further technological development. Despite high upfront costs, such investments are crucial to reducing exposure to carbon prices and improving reputation and access to ESG capital. The historical analysis of EU emissions (1990–2024) confirms the system’s effectiveness: –31% compared to 1990 levels by 2022, with strong reductions in energy and industry, while transport remains the critical sector. The case of A.P. Moller-Maersk demonstrates how ecological transition has become a strategic factor: monitoring emissions, integrating carbon costs into business models, and transparently communicating sustainability efforts to clients and investors are now essential for financial resilience and competitiveness. In conclusion, the EU ETS acts as a global laboratory for decarbonization, with effects extending beyond Europe and shaping trade and industry worldwide. While it poses challenges, it also generates opportunities for innovation, efficiency, and differentiation. The inclusion of international transport marks a decisive step in aligning value chains with climate goals, proving that sustainability has become a central strategic variable in global commerce.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14247/27203