Regionalization, multipolarism and neocolonialism: USA, Mexico and China’s trade relations.

The goal of this thesis is to analyze the trilateral economic relationship between China, Mexico and the United States, its political implications and possible future outcomes. This work will elaborate on the political-economic evolutions of these countries in the international arena and especially in their mutual relationships, starting from events that can be considered milestones for what is currently happening. China has gained more and more relevance in international trade since 2001, when it entered in the World Trade Organization (WTO), and its economy has grown till it became the world’s second largest, after the US. At the same time, Mexico’s economy entered in a new phase of growth since joining the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994, which gave impulse to comparative advantages. The Mexican economy benefitted from foreign direct investments and exportations to the US and, on the other hand, imports from China also played an important role in Mexican growth, providing commodities to the Mexican manufacturing sector. In this context, China introduced itself in the North American market through regional chains of production. In 2020, the NAFTA was replaced by the United States – Mexico – Canada trade agreement (USMCA). The new treaty has been negotiated in perspective of changes in the geopolitical scenario, and in perspective of China’s global and regional competition; next year, it should be reviewed by the parties. This paper will try to investigate what will happen in the next future, with Donald Trump’s second presidency in the US and Claudia Sheinbaum’s government in Mexico. We will see how this will affect the negotiations for the renovation of the USMCA in 2026 and what is and will be the role of China.