The Geopolitical Impact of Natural Gas Discoveries and the EastMed Pipeline on the Cyprus Conflict: How Have Energy Resources Shaped Negotiation Dynamics and Regional Alliances?

This thesis examines how fossil energy resources have become a pivotal driver of geopolitical realignment and regional tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean, with a particular focus on Cyprus and its evolving role in the Greece-Israel-Cyprus energy alliance. The discovery of offshore natural gas reserves in recent decades has exacerbated longstanding political conflicts, particularly the Cyprus issue, while creating new strategic partnerships and rivalries. Through an analysis of the Cyprus conflict in the context of energy geopolitics, this study examines how natural gas has transformed diplomatic relations, intensified maritime disputes, and challenged legal and institutional norms in the region. The thesis, structured into three chapters, first traces the historical roots of the Cyprus conflict and the formation of the Greece-Israel-Cyprus alliance, as well as the influence of Turkish foreign policy and the Blue Homeland doctrine. The second chapter addresses the structural forces of fossil energy, including economic dependency, maritime legal disputes, and the role of multinational corporations. Comparative case studies offer a broader perspective on Cyprus's position within global patterns of energy conflict and cooperation. The final chapter assesses Cyprus’s potential as an energy producer, weighing economic prospects against geopolitical risks and the challenges of transitioning to renewable energy. The thesis concludes that, while providing strategic leverage to Cyprus, energy also exposes the island to new dependencies and risks, highlighting the dual nature of natural resources in contested geopolitical areas.